By Andi Anderson
The U.S. beef cow slaughter rate in 2025 is on track to be the lowest in a decade, with numbers down by more than 17% through mid-May. If this trend holds, the slaughter rate could reach just 8.5% of the January 1 beef cow inventory—the smallest since 2015.
Two main factors drive beef cow inventory: the number of new heifers joining the herd and the number of cows leaving due to culling or death. While calf prices are high in 2025, widespread heifer retention has not yet occurred.
Heifer retention might increase later in the year, especially if prices stay strong and weather conditions are favorable. However, any impact on herd size from heifer retention won't be seen until at least 2027, due to the time it takes for a heifer to mature, calve, and wean her first offspring.
In contrast, changes in cow culling affect herd numbers more quickly. The current low culling rate suggests producers are holding on to cows longer in hopes of producing another high-value calf, despite strong cull cow prices.
From 1986 to 2024, the average annual beef cow slaughter rate was just under 10%, ranging from a low of 7.6% in 2015 to a high of 13.2% in 2022. High culling rates from 2021 to 2023 likely led to a younger herd, helping explain the reduced culling in 2025.
Although fewer heifers are entering the herd in 2025, the drop in slaughter could slightly increase beef cow numbers going into 2026. While this pattern could still change, current data indicates a possible shift toward herd expansion for the coming year.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-baranozdemir
Categories: Iowa, Livestock, Beef Cattle