By Jamie Martin
New trade agreements involving the European Union, Mercosur nations, and Australia are expected to reshape global beef markets in 2026. Still, market analysts suggest that these changes will have only gradual short-term effects.
According to RaboResearch, the agreements mainly expand access to markets rather than significantly increasing trade volumes. Angus Gidley Baird, a senior analyst, says existing high export levels and structural challenges are limiting growth potential.
The EU Mercosur agreement has introduced new export opportunities. It provides zero-tariff access for around 47,000 metric tons of beef under the Hilton Quota and includes a new quota that will eventually rise to 99,000 metric tons with a 7.5% tariff. While this improves trade conditions, existing export volumes remain strong.
The Australia EU agreement follows a similar path. It removes tariffs on a smaller quota and introduces a new allowance of 30,600 metric tons. However, the agreement will take up to 10 years to fully apply, meaning benefits will be gradual.
In addition to these agreements, global policies are shaping trade flows. China has renewed export licenses for over 400 US processing plants, which may support US exports. However, higher cattle prices and limited herd availability are expected to slow expansion.
China’s safeguard measures and quota systems are also influencing import demand. Demand for US beef may increase later in the year once quotas for other suppliers are reached.
Supply conditions remain tight worldwide. Beef production declined by 2.5% in early 2026 and is projected to decrease further during the year. Major producing countries, including Brazil, the United States, and China, are all experiencing reduced production.
At the same time, rising cattle prices are adding pressure to the market. These price increases, combined with declining supply, are limiting the ability of global trade to grow quickly.
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