Drought Risk Management For 2025 Season

By Scout Nelson

The 2024 grazing season ended with dry conditions, and low moisture levels this year have worsened soil moisture across Nebraska. With forecasts predicting a warmer and drier summer for 2025, drought planning is essential for ranchers in the state. Early spring moisture will be crucial to replenish soil moisture for cool-season grass growth, which directly affects forage production.

Pasture production can vary significantly depending on precipitation, temperature, and soil health. Monitoring these factors throughout the spring and early summer can help ranchers adjust stocking rates if rainfall and forage production are lower than expected. The following trigger dates are useful for determining the appropriate adjustments to stocking rates.

Key Trigger Dates to Watch:

• April 1: Assess soil moisture and review precipitation data from the previous growing season. If moisture is low, consider reducing stocking rates by 10-20% for cool season dominated rangeland.
• April 15 to May 10: With reliable 30–45-day weather forecasts, adjust stocking rates further if above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation are expected. Smooth bromegrass pastures may see a 25-50% reduction in production.
• May 20 to June 10: Forages such as Needlegrasses and western wheatgrass will be in their rapid growth window. If precipitation is below average, reduce stocking rates by 30-40%, depending on grass health.
• June 15 to June 30: By this time, cool-season grass growth will have peaked, and only limited benefit will come from late-season rains. Focus on monitoring warm-season grass growth for late-season grazing.

September 1 to September 15: For cool season grasses like smooth bromegrass, adequate fall precipitation is crucial to ensure growth for grazing. Monitor soil moisture levels to determine if additional forage growth is possible.

These trigger dates will help ranchers monitor moisture levels and adjust grazing practices as needed to avoid overgrazing and maintain healthy rangeland. By planning, producers can better prepare for the challenges that the 2025 growing season may bring.

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