By Scout Nelson
Researchers from the University of Minnesota report that economic growth in lower-income countries may help reduce biodiversity loss and decrease pressure on natural ecosystems. The study challenges the long-held belief that economic development and environmental conservation always work against each other.
The research team analyzed global trends involving population growth, food demand, crop production, and agricultural trade. Their findings suggest that stronger economic development could reduce the need to convert forests and natural habitats into farmland during the 21st century. The study was recently published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Agriculture currently uses a large share of the world’s land. Researchers explain that cropland covers about 12% of Earth’s ice-free land surface, while grazing land covers about 25%. Agriculture remains one of the leading causes of habitat loss and greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.
The study estimates that if current agricultural and food demand trends continue, global cropland could expand by more than one billion hectares by the year 2100. Much of that increase would likely occur in lower-income countries where populations continue growing rapidly and crop yields remain lower.
Researchers found that faster economic development could change that trend. As incomes increase, countries often experience slower population growth and improved agricultural productivity through better technology, research investment, and infrastructure. Increased agricultural trade also may reduce pressure to clear additional land for farming.
The study also suggests that reducing crop demand in higher-income countries through healthier diets, lower food waste, and reduced biofuel production may further reduce global farmland expansion. Combining those changes with stronger economic growth in lower-income countries could significantly reduce future cropland needs.
“Accelerating economic development in lower-income countries can reduce poverty and, more surprisingly, also be good for nature,” said Stephen Polasky, co-author of the study, Regents Professor and co-founder of NatCap TEEMs in the University of Minnesota College of Food, Agricultural and Natural Resources Sciences. “Higher incomes are associated with lower population growth and increased crop yields, which can more than offset growth in per capita consumption.”
Photo Credit: istock-georgeclerk
Categories: Minnesota, General