By Blake Jackson
Federal energy policy changes made since January 2025 could increase energy costs, reduce employment, and worsen public health outcomes in Pennsylvania, according to an analysis using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS).
The assessment examined major federal decisions made during the second current administration and the 119th Congress and estimated their effects on Pennsylvania households, businesses and the broader economy.
The analysis found that state residents could collectively spend an additional $29 billion on energy. Average household energy costs are projected to rise by about $520 in 2035 and $590 in 2040.
Transportation costs could also increase as federal policies that encourage vehicle efficiency and innovation are reduced. Pennsylvania gasoline prices are projected to be 15% higher in 2035 and 28% higher in 2040, adding to price pressures associated with the war involving Iran.
Changes to federal energy and manufacturing policies could also affect employment. Pennsylvania could lose an average of 5,100 jobs annually over the next decade, while the state has already lost an estimated 1,500 clean energy positions since January 2025.
Slower electrification and reduced domestic energy manufacturing are expected to weaken economic activity, resulting in an estimated $610 million GDP loss in 2030. The loss could reach $3.7 billion in 2038 before declining to approximately $3.3 billion in 2040.
The analysis also estimates that increased air pollution could add about $970 million to Pennsylvania's health care costs. Annual health-related costs could rise by $76 million in 2035 and $110 million in 2040.
The policies examined include the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, changes to federal greenhouse gas and air pollution standards, revisions to vehicle emissions requirements, restrictions affecting state emissions programs, limits on renewable energy permitting, reductions in hydrogen funding and changes to hydrogen tax-credit rules.
The analysis also considered the cancellation of the $7 billion Solar for All program.
The report recommends that Pennsylvania officials pursue state-level measures to reduce these impacts. Suggested actions include accelerating wind and solar development, improving permitting and grid connections, supporting electric vehicles and charging infrastructure, expanding building and industrial efficiency programs, and encouraging investment in emerging clean-energy industries.
While state measures cannot fully replace federal policies, proponents say they could help control energy costs, improve public health, and expand Pennsylvania's energy capacity.
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Photo Credit: pexels-felix-mittermeier
Categories: Pennsylvania, Energy, Government & Policy