Cow-Calf Herds See Positive Outlook for 2026

By Blake Jackson

The University of Missouri Extension has released updated Missouri Beef Cattle Enterprise Budgets, offering revised income and expense estimates for 2026. These budgets aim to help producers plan and make informed decisions as market conditions evolve.

“The budgets look favorable for cow-calf producers in the coming year, but as we’ve seen, markets can change quickly,” says Jacob Hefley, MU Extension field specialist in agricultural business. “Operations that buy animals or retain calves past weaning will still face tight margins as the purchase price of cattle and interest expenses remain high.”

Higher expected prices for weaned calves, along with updated input cost estimates, support a more positive outlook for cow-calf herds in 2026 compared to last year. Both spring- and fall-calving operations are projected to benefit from higher calf prices, which help offset increased production costs, particularly for pasture.

In contrast, enterprises that rely on buying or retaining animals face a more challenging financial picture. The beef backgrounding budget, which showed potential profits in 2025, now projects possible losses.

Replacement heifer development is less attractive as retaining heifers reduces the income that could have been earned from selling calves at weaning. Beef finishing operations continue to experience tight margins but show improvement from last year due to higher fed cattle prices.

Hefley emphasizes that these budgets reflect market prices from mid-October, just before recent shifts in cattle markets. “Budgets are a snapshot in time,” Hefley said. “Conditions change quickly, so it’s important to revisit your numbers regularly. Doing so helps producers make informed choices and adjust their management strategies as markets evolve.”

The updated 2026 budgets are available on the MU Extension website. Updates include sensitivity analyses showing how changes in calf prices, feed costs, or pasture rent affect profitability.

Income over cash costs is reported alongside operating and total costs, offering a clearer view of short-term cash flow. Additionally, pasture costs are now reported per acre instead of per animal unit month (AUM), simplifying calculations for producers.

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