By Scout Nelson
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Washington on September 23-25, 2026. Before the meeting, reports suggested that both countries might announce new agricultural trade commitments.
However, although progress was made in trade relations, the meeting did not result in new agricultural purchase agreements. The main announcement focused on tariff reductions and the work of the U.S.-China Board of Trade.
Frayne Olson, NDSU Extension Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist, explained how these trade agreements may affect American farmers and crop markets. The agreements include targets for soybean purchases and other agricultural products. Their impact depends on the amount China buys, the timing of purchases, and the supplies available in the United States.
U.S.-China Board of Trade Focuses on Tariffs
The U.S.-China Board of Trade was initially established during President Trump's visit to Beijing in May 2026. Its main goal is to “optimize bilateral trade” between the two countries. The Board's first major task is to reach an agreement on tariff reductions for $60 billion worth of nonsensitive goods traded between the United States and China.
The total value is divided equally between the two countries, with $30 billion in goods imported by each country. The United States plans to reduce tariffs on products such as small appliances, toys, holiday decorations, and children's car seats. China focuses on tariff reductions for agricultural products, fish, seafood, logs, wood products, cosmetics, and medical devices.
However, China does not reduce the additional 10% import tariff on U.S. soybeans. This tariff remains in place and continues to affect the cost of American soybeans entering the Chinese market.
On September 27, 2026, a White House fact sheet outlines the agricultural products China targets for tariff reductions. These products include corn, sunflower, sorghum, rapeseed or canola, wheat, barley, rice, oats, sugar, pulses, fruits, nuts, vegetable oils and meals, spices, meat, dairy products, tobacco, potatoes, eggs, distilled spirits, cotton, fish, pasta, and other products.
Previous Agreements Set Agricultural Purchase Targets
Even though the latest trade discussions do not produce new agricultural purchase commitments, earlier agreements continue to support U.S. crop markets.
At the October 2025 summit in Busan, South Korea, China agreed to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans during the 2026-2028 calendar years. This target is important because China is a major buyer of American soybeans, and its purchases can influence export demand and market prices.
During the U.S.-China summit in Beijing, China, in late May 2026, the countries also announced an additional commitment. China agreed to purchase at least $17 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products during calendar years 2026-2028. This commitment excludes soybeans and is prorated for calendar year 2026.
The two commitments provide potential support for American agricultural exports. However, their actual market impact depends on how much China purchases and which products it selects.
Historical Purchases Provide Important Context
Historical trade data helps explain the importance of these agreements. Figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service's Global Agricultural Trade System show China's past purchases of American soybeans and other agricultural products.
China's annual soybean purchases from the United States with the 25 million metric ton target. The blue line represents U.S. soybean export sales to China by calendar year. The dashed line shows export sales from January through July 2026, while the red line marks the purchase target.
The data also shows the effects of earlier trade disputes. Lower soybean export sales in 2018 and 2025 reflect periods when trade tensions affected U.S.-China agricultural commerce.
It shows the historical value of Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products, excluding soybeans. The blue line represents the value of these exports, while the red line marks the $17 billion target.
The data includes bulk grains, fruits, nuts, vegetables, meat products and hides, dairy products, and seafood. It excludes soybeans, wood products, and biofuels such as ethanol and biobased diesel.
The exact products included in the $17 billion commitment remain unclear. Historical data shows that Chinese purchases exceeded this target only during 2021 and 2022. These purchases followed the terms of the Phase One agreement, which was negotiated at the end of the first U.S.-China trade dispute.
How Trade Agreements May Affect Crop Prices
The combined effect of the two agricultural purchase commitments may support U.S. crop prices. However, the results depend on the amount and timing of Chinese purchases, along with the supply of each crop.
International buyers generally seek products at competitive prices and within specific purchasing periods. Chinese buyers may focus on American agricultural products that offer the best value and meet their needs.
Harvest season is often a key purchasing period because crop supplies are larger and prices may be lower. Buyers may also favor products with greater available supplies. As a result, increased Chinese purchases do not always lead to large price increases for every crop.
For farmers, the agreements may provide additional export demand and some price support during the winter marketing season. However, the benefits vary by crop and depend on actual buying activity.
Photo Credit: gettyImages-dilok-klaisataporn
Categories: North Dakota, General