Weather May Boost Brazil Corn Yields

By Jamie Martin

Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop is projected to reach 140.3 million tons, according to Hedgepoint Global Markets. This represents a small decline of 0.1% from last season, when production was 140.5 million tons.

The growth in the planted area will partially offset the expected drop in productivity. Brazil is expected to plant 22.061 million hectares, a 2.6% increase over 2024/25. Average crop yields are estimated at 6,361 kilograms per hectare, down 2.6% from the previous season.

“Although initially lower average yields are expected for Brazilian crops compared to those recorded in the 2024/25 season, favorable weather over the next 3 to 4 months could lead to positive adjustments in estimates, possibly resulting in a new record harvest,” said Luiz Fernando Roque, Market Intelligence Coordinator at Hedgepoint Global Markets.

The increase in areas is linked to higher domestic consumption, mainly driven by the expansion of corn ethanol production. “As far as the area is concerned, the trend is for further growth, supported mainly by the increase in domestic consumption derived from the advance of corn ethanol production in the country, with new industrial plants coming on stream in 2026 and 2027,” Roque added.

Corn areas are also expanding due to producers’ reduced dependence on exports. Even with soybean harvest delays affecting the second crop calendar, planting has progressed, especially in Brazil’s central region. By March 20, 91.3% of the corn area was planted, near the historical average of 91.6%, though slightly behind last year’s 95%.

Short-term forecasts show lower rainfall in the central region from late March to early April, favoring planting completion. However, April may see below-average rainfall, which could affect early crop development. Rainfall is expected to return to normal in May and June, creating better conditions for growth.

Weather will continue to be a key factor in consolidating yields and determining the final size of Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop.

Photo Credit: Hedgepoint Global Markets